Riyue shares (603218) event comments: performance in line with expectations continued high growth can be expected
Matters: The company announced the 2019 performance forecast, and the estimated total operating income is about 34.
Eight ten percent, an increase of about 48 per year.
05%, net profit attributable to mother 48,535.
580,000 yuan, an annual increase of 73% to 85%.
Ping An’s point of view: The performance is in line with expectations, and wind power castings are rising in volume, driving high growth in 2019 performance.
According to the company announcement, the replacement volume of casting products in 2019 is about 33 inches, an increase of about 33 each year.
3%; the incremental part of the increase is mainly from wind power castings. In 2019, the domestic wind power industry has strong demand. The company has achieved rapid growth in volume of wind power castings through continuous capacity expansion.
At the same time, the company’s product profitability has increased, and international customers and megawatt products with relatively better profitability have increased sales. Under tight supply and demand conditions, the prices of some products have risen, and the average selling price per ton has increased.
Single-quarter profit in the fourth quarter1.
74 ppm, an annual increase of 74% to 115%; the company’s performance as a whole is in line with market expectations.
The issuance of convertible bonds smoothed the expansion of finishing capacity, and the path for future capacity expansion is clear.
Recently, the company’s convertible bonds were successfully issued and listed, raising funds of about 1.2 billion US dollars, mainly used for the annual production of 12 large-scale offshore wind power key components finishing production line construction projects and supplementary liquidity; considering the IPO investment project is expected to be completed in the 2020 quarterThe production capacity has been reached, and the company’s finishing production 南京夜网 capacity will continue to increase in the next few years.
In terms of rough production capacity, the company’s new annual production of 18 short-term (first-phase 10-month) offshore equipment key components of the company has passed pre-acceptance and is expected to provide a significant increase in capacity in 2020. It is expected that the annual blank production capacity will reach 202040 maximum; 8 candidate projects in the next two phases are also expected to start construction.
In 2020, the global demand of the wind power industry will resonate, and the supply and demand of castings will become tighter.
2020 is a big year for wind power. Domestic onshore wind power rush installations are trying to promote the increase of installed capacity to 35GW and above, and overseas demand is also very strong. New domestic and global wind power installations are expected to reach record highs.
In this context, the supply and demand pattern of wind power castings may be further tightened in 2020. We estimate that some wind power castings may have price increases, while the prices of main raw materials for pig iron castings have slowed down, and the industry’s profitability has continued to increase.The situation where both quantity and profits go up.
Maintain the profit forecast and expect the company to return to its parent’s net profit for 2019-20204.
02 trillion, corresponding to EPS 0.
51 yuan, dynamic PE 23.
The competition pattern of wind power castings is relatively better. As a leader in wind power castings, the company has room for growth and maintains the company’s “recommended” level.
1. If the wind power policy changes, it may cause the domestic installed capacity to increase less than expected.
2. The company’s main raw materials are pig iron and scrap steel. If the price of raw materials rises in the future, the overall gross profit rate may be lower than expected.
3. The construction of new production capacity involves environmental protection and other factors, and there may be a risk that the construction progress is less than expected.