Riyue shares (603218) event comments: performance in line with expectations continued high growth can be expected

Riyue shares (603218) event comments: performance in line with expectations continued high growth can be expected

Matters: The company announced the 2019 performance forecast, and the estimated total operating income is about 34.

Eight ten percent, an increase of about 48 per year.

05%, net profit attributable to mother 48,535.


580,000 yuan, an annual increase of 73% to 85%.

Ping An’s point of view: The performance is in line with expectations, and wind power castings are rising in volume, driving high growth in 2019 performance.

According to the company announcement, the replacement volume of casting products in 2019 is about 33 inches, an increase of about 33 each year.

3%; the incremental part of the increase is mainly from wind power castings. In 2019, the domestic wind power industry has strong demand. The company has achieved rapid growth in volume of wind power castings through continuous capacity expansion.

At the same time, the company’s product profitability has increased, and international customers and megawatt products with relatively better profitability have increased sales. Under tight supply and demand conditions, the prices of some products have risen, and the average selling price per ton has increased.

Single-quarter profit in the fourth quarter1.


74 ppm, an annual increase of 74% to 115%; the company’s performance as a whole is in line with market expectations.

The issuance of convertible bonds smoothed the expansion of finishing capacity, and the path for future capacity expansion is clear.

Recently, the company’s convertible bonds were successfully issued and listed, raising funds of about 1.2 billion US dollars, mainly used for the annual production of 12 large-scale offshore wind power key components finishing production line construction projects and supplementary liquidity; considering the IPO investment project is expected to be completed in the 2020 quarterThe production capacity has been reached, and the company’s finishing production 南京夜网 capacity will continue to increase in the next few years.

In terms of rough production capacity, the company’s new annual production of 18 short-term (first-phase 10-month) offshore equipment key components of the company has passed pre-acceptance and is expected to provide a significant increase in capacity in 2020. It is expected that the annual blank production capacity will reach 202040 maximum; 8 candidate projects in the next two phases are also expected to start construction.

In 2020, the global demand of the wind power industry will resonate, and the supply and demand of castings will become tighter.

2020 is a big year for wind power. Domestic onshore wind power rush installations are trying to promote the increase of installed capacity to 35GW and above, and overseas demand is also very strong. New domestic and global wind power installations are expected to reach record highs.

In this context, the supply and demand pattern of wind power castings may be further tightened in 2020. We estimate that some wind power castings may have price increases, while the prices of main raw materials for pig iron castings have slowed down, and the industry’s profitability has continued to increase.The situation where both quantity and profits go up.

Investment Advice.

Maintain the profit forecast and expect the company to return to its parent’s net profit for 2019-20204.

94, 8.

02 trillion, corresponding to EPS 0.

93, 1.

51 yuan, dynamic PE 23.

7, 14.

6 times.

The competition pattern of wind power castings is relatively better. As a leader in wind power castings, the company has room for growth and maintains the company’s “recommended” level.

risk warning.

1. If the wind power policy changes, it may cause the domestic installed capacity to increase less than expected.

2. The company’s main raw materials are pig iron and scrap steel. If the price of raw materials rises in the future, the overall gross profit rate may be lower than expected.

3. The construction of new production capacity involves environmental protection and other factors, and there may be a risk that the construction progress is less than expected.

Huadian International (600027): Listen to the wind and wait for the flowers to bloom

Huadian International (600027): Listen to the wind and wait for the flowers to bloom

Key points of the report The Group ‘s comprehensive conventional energy power generation assets and the ultimate platform company ‘s power generation assets are located in 14 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions across the country. The geographical location is superior, mainly located near the power load center or coal mine area.

The company’s power generation mainly focuses on coal-fired power generation, and comprehensively develops a variety of installed power sources.

The company’s gradual power generation in 2018 was 2,098.

5.4 billion kWh, an increase of about 9 compared with the same period in 2017.


In addition, the company plans to build a large number of units under construction, the Group’s high-quality assets are expected to continue to be injected, and the extension and endogenous two-wheel drive are worth looking forward to.

  The downward cost releases profit space, and the core factors for improving the performance of coal prices are the steady and weak pace of resumption of work after the spring. At the same time, due to the impact of coal mine accidents and increased security inspections, port coal prices continued to increase for two months.

Taking into account that at the end of the current traditional heating season, the pace of resumption of production is generally weak, and the subsequent resumption of normal production and coal production throughout the coal mines, the coal supply and demand relationship tends to be more and more relaxed, and port coal prices may continue the current downward trend.

We still maintain the Air Force ‘s judgment that the average coal price in 2019 exceeds the decline, and the 2019 coal price penetrated by the downward pressure of the macro economy lacks high support.

The performance of the thermal power industry is mainly transformed into high and low coal prices and reversed. Therefore, the downward movement of the coal price center is expected to bring breakthrough performance improvements to the thermal power industry and Huadian International.

  Demand growth forecast is worry-free. Utilizing hours or continuous improvement while the pressure on macroeconomic growth will change will affect power demand, but based on the above research results on the supply and demand balance of the power industry and future supply and demand forecast, we judge 2019The nationwide utilization of thermal power is expected to increase in advance.

The average utilization time of the company as a whole is expected to grow steadily, which will help the company’s performance improvement and acceleration.

  The current estimate is at the bottom of history. The performance evaluation of profit improvement expectations and the improvement of performance and market investment style conversion are relatively low in the internal thermal power industry. Compared with other major thermal power listed companies in the industry, the company’s P / B ratio is estimated to be lower than the industry average.Level, it is estimated that 无锡桑拿网 the repair space is significant.

Judging from the company’s own historical P / B estimate change, the current estimate level is at the absolute bottom of history.

The company’s estimated P / B ratio has been around 1 for most of the time since listing.

It fluctuates about 4 times. The current estimated level is an absolute bottom from the perspective of historical long periods. The long-term optimism of the operating environment improves driving performance and repairs, which drives the company’s estimated level to rise.

  Investment recommendations and estimates Without considering the increase rate for the time being to further accelerate the improvement of the company’s performance, we expect the company’s 2018-2020 earnings per share to be 0.

22 yuan, 0.

36 yuan and 0.

47 yuan, corresponding to 19 for PE.

33 times, 12.

00 times and 9.

15 times, give the company a “Buy” rating.

  Risk Warning: 1.

Risks of coal prices falling short of expectations; risk of deterioration of power supply and demand environment; 2.

The policy advancement did not meet the expected risks; the project construction failed to meet the expected risks.

Zhongjin Lingnan (000060): Q3 single-quarter results increase slightly in half a year

Zhongjin Lingnan (000060): Q3 single-quarter results increase slightly in half a year

Core point of view: Third quarter report: net profit attributable to mothers in the first three quarters6.

3.6 billion companies disclosed the third quarter report of 2019, and achieved operating income of 173 in the first three quarters.

4 ‰, an annual increase of 2.

18%; net profit attributable to mother 6.

36 ‰, a decrease of 17 per year.

37%; deducted non-net profit is 5.

400 million yuan, an annual decrease of 26.


EPS is 0.

18 yuan / share, a decrease of 18 per year.


The lead and zinc price fluctuations suppressed the company’s performance, but Q3 at least slightly increased the company’s Q1-Q3 net profit attributable to the mother, respectively.

61, 2.

10, 1.

65 ppm, at least -16%, -29%, 1 respectively.

47% quarter-on-quarter budget, but Q3 increased in advance.

The decline in the company’s first three quarters was mainly due to the decline 杭州桑拿网 in the price of lead and zinc (the average prices of SHFE lead and zinc in the first three quarters were 16,737 yuan / ton and 20,516 yuan / ton, respectively, which decreased by 12% and 13% respectively), and the gross profit margin decreased (The company’s Q1-Q3 gross profit margins were 12 respectively.

6%, 7.

5%, 6.


In addition, from the semi-annual report, the company’s main product lead-zinc concentrate output has also improved (the amount of lead-zinc metal in the concentrate in the first half of the year 14).

24 for the first time, downgraded six years ago.


Entering the fourth quarter, the price of lead and zinc fluctuated. It is expected that the company’s performance will stop falling and stabilize.

Lead-zinc mining and smelting together with aluminum and new materials development The company has a lead-zinc mining and processing capacity of 30 tons / year. The company is directly under the Fankou Lead-Zinc Mine.Peelia Canada Global Star is responsible for copper and gold mining.

In addition, the company continues to expand the research and development of aluminum and new materials. The subsidiary Huajiari Aluminum owns aluminum profiles (2.

5 arsenic / year) and aluminum doors and windows (400,000 square meters / year). Zhongjin Lingnan Technology is a leading manufacturer of nitric acid powder materials. Its domestic market share of zinc powder for mercury-free batteries is about 60%. Its main applications areIn the field of electronics and new energy (the company’s official website).

Earnings forecast and investment recommendations predict that the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.

25, 0.

26, 0.

28 yuan / share, corresponding to the current sustainable PE is 16.

2, 15.

5, 14.

7 times; considering the stable and oscillating operation of lead and zinc prices, the company’s profitability tends to be stable, maintaining the company’s previous reasonable value6.

5 yuan / share remains unchanged. At the same time, the company is considered to be the leading company in the lead and zinc industry and maintains a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: the risk of a significant decline in the price of lead and zinc; the risk of a significant decline in copper and gold production.

Hengrun Co., Ltd. (603985): Wind turbine tower flange leader’s performance is booming

Hengrun Co., Ltd. (603985): Wind turbine tower flange leader’s performance is booming

Core point of view: downstream demand is picking up and the company’s performance is steadily increasing. The company is a supplier of parts for the forging industry. Its products are mainly wind power, petrochemical, metal pressure vessels, construction machinery and other industries.

In the first three quarters of 2018, the company’s revenue was 7.

880,000 yuan, an increase of 46 in ten years.

62%; net profit attributable to mothers was 93.42 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.

82%, gross margin 25.


At present, domestic wind power supplementary installed capacity has returned to the growth channel, and further demand and demand recovery in the future, the company’s forged parts and components products are expected to benefit and achieve steady growth in performance.

The global 合肥夜网 wind power installation is on the rise and the forging market is booming. The global wind power industry is expected to develop rapidly. According to GWEC data, the global wind power market will have a total installed capacity of 588 in 2018.

82GW, an increase of 9% per year.

The recent wind power market presents three marginal changes: 1.

The overseas wind power market is expected to exceed expectations. Bloomberg New Energy Finance expects the global wind power market to rebound in 19 years; 2.

The rise of offshore wind power, especially in Europe, is growing rapidly, while domestic local governments have approved a series of large-scale offshore wind power projects; 3.

The recovery of installed capacity in northern China is mainly due to the improvement of abandoned wind power restriction, good resource environment 武汉夜网论坛 and convenient installation conditions.

In addition, the company acquired a 51% stake in Jiangyin Guangke Optoelectronics, cut into the pan-semiconductor industry, and created a new profit growth point.

Investment suggestion: We predict that the company’s revenue will be 10 in 18-20 years.



90 trillion, EPS is 1.



46 yuan / share, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 23/16/11 times.

Under the influence of the rise of offshore wind power and the recovery of installed capacity in northern China, the installed capacity of the global wind power market in 19 years is expected to usher in a rebound.

The company has high added value in the wind turbine tower flange market, its products have expected competitiveness, and its customer structure continues to be optimized.

The current 19-year PE of comparable companies is estimated to be 20x. We give the company a valuation based on the market average. The corresponding 19-year reasonable PE is estimated to be 20x and the corresponding reasonable value is 35 yuan / share.

Covered for the first time, giving the company a “Buy” rating.

Risk reminders: changes in downstream market demand, international trade frictions affecting industry development, risks of raw material price fluctuations, changes in national industrial policies, risks of intensified market competition, and risks of major customer dependence.

Shaanxi Coal Industry Co., Ltd. (601225): Q2 production resumes normal profit and stable growth is expected

Shaanxi Coal Industry Co., Ltd. (601225): Q2 production resumes normal profit and stable growth is expected
Event: The company released its semi-annual report for 2019, and its operating income reached 325.Eight ten percent, an increase of 24 per year.2%; net profit attributable to mother 58.700 million yuan, corresponding to 0 EPS.60 yuan / share, an increase of 1 in ten years.7%.Realize the net profit after deduction to non-return mother 57.800 million, a slight decrease of 2 every year.9%. Q2 production returned to normal, which basically eliminated the impact of Q1 production suspension.In 2019, the company’s commercial coal production reached 5,370, an annual increase of 2%, and the impact of the Q1 shutdown has been basically eliminated.It can be deduced that Q2 output reached 2974 inches, which is an annual increase of 8 quarters.3%, 24.1%, in addition to the elimination of the safety supervision and suppression caused by the mine disaster, the commissioning of the Xiaobaodang Phase I (1500 / year) is also an important reason.At present, the first phase of Xiaobao has been running at full capacity, and the company’s single-season output can reach more than 3,000.In terms of mine construction, the second phase of Xiaobaodang (1300 / year) is expected to be put into operation in 2020Q4, further contributing to the increase. The upward margin of costs exceeded the maximum, and the net profit per ton of coal slightly shifted.In 2019, the company’s comprehensive income reached 376 yuan / ton, which rose instead of falling. In addition to the strong price of coal in the place of production, Q2’s gradual reduction of 3% was also an important reason.The announcement shows that the full cost of self-produced coal per ton of coal reaches 206 yuan, which is 32 yuan a year. It is said that it mainly originates from three aspects: the environmental fund began to collect in August last year, and the resource tax rate has been increased from 武汉夜网论坛 6% to 9% this year.The amortization of mining rights and the provision of arable land occupation tax for some mines after the commissioning of Baodang each affected about 10 yuan / ton.It is estimated that the net profit of 2019H ton of coal is 146 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13 yuan; however, the increase in investment income of participating mines offsets some of the adverse effects. On the whole, the coal sector achieved a net profit of US $ 5.8 billion, a decrease of 9%.4%. The fourth phase of Yushen opens up long-term development space.The fourth phase of Yushen is a key project planned for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with reserves of 42.1 billion tons and more favorable mining conditions.As the main development body, Shaanxi Coal Group is expected to build several 1,000-ton large-scale mines.With the opening of the Menghua Railway and the further concentration of coal resources in the future, Shaanxi Coal Group and the company are expected to replicate the Chongqing model, thereby opening the coal market in Hubei and Jiangxi, Hunan. Profit forecast and investment grade: The company’s EPS is expected to be 1 in 2019-2021.13, 1.20, 1.30 yuan / share, a year-on-year increase of 3%, 6%, 9%. The current expected PE for 2019 is less than 8.0 times, at a historical low.In the near term, the profit increase that Xiaobaodang Minerals can contribute, and the fourth phase of Yushen is expected to open up long-term development space. The company’s stable profit growth is determined, maintaining the “strongly recommended -A” rating. Risk warning: economic growth declines, coal prices fall sharply

Industrial Bank (601166): Benefit from low market interest rate conversion

Industrial Bank (601166): Benefit from low market interest rate conversion

Event: On the evening of April 29, Industrial Bank disclosed its 18 annual report and 1Q19 quarterly report.

18-year revenue of 1582.

8.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of +13.

08%; net profit attributable to mother 606.

200 million, a year-on-year increase of +5.


19Q1 revenue was 476.

1.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of +34.

78%; net profit attributable to mother 196.

580,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of +11.


As of the end of March 19, the scale of assets was 6.

70 trillion, non-performing loan ratio1.

57%, with a loan-to-loan ratio of 3.

twenty four%.

Opinion: The growth rate of performance is obviously higher, and the growth rate of fundamental performance is obviously higher.

In the first quarter of 19th, the profit before provision and provision exceeded the average growth rate by more than 30%; the net profit growth rate reached 11 in ten years.

35%, earlier than 18 years 5.

The growth rate of 98% increased significantly.

19Q1 revenue growth rate rose sharply, the merger is related to a low base, 18Q1 revenue growth rate is only 2.

28%; the other improvement is related to the greatly improved 深圳桑拿网 interest margin and the significant improvement in non-interest income.

Fundamentals are reversed.

Industrial Bank’s interbank characteristics are distinctive, with more non-standard investments on the asset side and more non-deposit debt on the debt side.

In ’17 and ’18, due to the impact of strong regulation and high market interest rates, the performance was obviously under pressure.

Since 18H2, market interest rates have fallen significantly, regulatory improvements have eased, and Industrial Bank has benefited significantly.

We expect the revenue growth rate to decline slightly through the base increase and monetary policy fine-tuning.

The asset transformation is large, and the net interest margin has increased significantly.

At the end of 16 years, the scale of investment receivables (mainly non-standard 都市夜网 investments) reached 2.

10 trillion, fell to 1 at the end of 18 years.

39 trillion, compressed 0 in two years.

71 trillion; therefore, at the same time, loans expanded by 2.

08 trillion rose to 2.

93 trillion.

The ratio of loan budget to assets was 34 at the end of 16 years.

2% rose to 46 in 1Q19.

3%. After nearly two to three years, the asset structure has been significantly optimized.

Net interest margin increased significantly.

The high proportion of market-oriented liabilities has benefited significantly from lower market interest rates.AAA Interbank Deposit Certificate with a maturity of 3 months 1Q19 average daily interest rate 2.

75%, the previous decline was 191BP; according to estimates, 1Q19 rejected the cost rate of 2.

68%, a year-on-year drop of 41BP, is the main reason for rising interest rates.

According to estimates, 1Q19 net interest margin is 1.

94% (reduced I9 effect), obviously increased significantly.

The quality of assets remained relatively good and provisions were abundant.

Asset quality remains good.

The non-performing loan ratio in the first quarter of 19 was 1.

57%, concerned about the loan ratio2.

12%, relatively stable; overdue loan ratio at the end of 18 years 2.

02%, keeping the concentration level.

Provisions are looser.

The loan-to-loan ratio in the first quarter of 19 was 3.

24%, provision coverage ratio of 206.

34%, wide provision.

In addition, in recent years, non-standard investments have been compared with loan management, and the impairment provision has been more adequate.

Investment suggestion: Reversal of performance and deep cultivation of “commercial bank + investment bank”. We expect the market interest rate to remain relatively low in 19 years, and market-oriented offsetting higher Industrial Bank will usher in fundamental changes.

We believe that Xingye has a high degree of marketization and continues to cultivate “commercial banks + investment banks”. In the future, the general trend of mixed operations may be transformed into a long logic with estimated improvement.

It is expected that its 19 years will be 8 before the forecast of 19/20 revenue growth.

7% / 7.

9% adjusted to 21.

1% / 7.

2%, net profit growth forecast is expected to be 8.

9% / 10.

4% increased to 14.

1% / 15.


Give 1.

Double the 19-year PB target estimate, corresponding to a target price of 26.

87 yuan / share, maintain BUY rating.

Risk warnings: market interest rates rise sharply; loan interest rates have fallen significantly; the economy has fallen faster than expected.

Shun Xin Agriculture (000860) Significant Growth in Accounts Received, Double Non-Profit

Shun Xin Agriculture (000860) Significant Growth in Accounts Received, Double Non-Profit
Event: The company released its 2018 annual report, and the company achieved an operating income of 120.74 ppm, a ten-year increase2.90%, realizing net profit attributable to mother 7.440,000 yuan, an increase of 69 in ten years.78%, 佛山桑拿网 net profit after deduction is 7.930,000 yuan, an increase of 129 in ten years.59%, the basic profit income is 1.30 yuan / share, expected average ROE is 10.04%. In 2018H2, the liquor business grew 21%, and some non-profits were doubled.The company’s 2018Q4 revenue was 28.710,000 yuan, net profit attributable to mother 2.08,000 yuan, deducting non-net profit 2.3.6 billion, with annual growth of -0.49%, 25.13% and 230.59%.Liquor business revenue in 2018 was 92.78 ppm, an increase of 43 in ten years.82%, sales 62.1 Initially, it grows 44 per year.65%, of which the growth rate of 2018H2 liquor has improved due to economic impact, with an annual increase of 21.12%.Initially, non-recurring gains and losses in 2018 were -0.49 million, the company deducted non-net profit of 7.930,000 yuan, an increase of 129 in ten years.59%. The increase in advance receipts increased and the net interest rate increased.Report legal company monetary funds 61.72 trillion, advance accounts 56.54 ppm, an increase of 49 at the beginning of the decade.38%, the advance account statement of the parent company is 46.68 trillion, it is estimated that the advance payment of real estate business is about 10 trillion.In terms of gross profit margin, the company’s overall gross profit margin was 39 in 2018.96%, an annual increase of 6.04pct, of which Q4 gross margin is 45.76%, an increase of 15 per year.44 points.In terms of period expenses, the company’s sales expenses subsidy in 2018 10.14%, 0 per year.34pct; management cost + R & D cost 5.76%, with a ten-year average of 1.06 points; financial expenses 1.19%, zero for one year.15 marks.Affected by gross margin and expense ratio, the company’s 18-year net profit margin was 6.16%, an increase of 2 per year.43 points. The national distribution of liquor has accelerated, and real estate meat business has dragged down performance.The report summarizes that the company ‘s nationalized market with a flood of liquor business continues to accelerate. Niulanshan surpassed 22 provincial-level (including municipalities) sales markets with more than one million. The Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta markets are developing rapidly and are flooding.The layout has achieved remarkable results.The pork business is affected by pig prices and African swine fever, with revenue every 20 years.23%, the real estate business Shunxin Jiayu’s 2018 revenue1.55 ppm, net profit -2.It is expected that the land business will reduce losses after the subsequent gradual payment recovery, reduce the company’s financial costs, and will eventually be divested. Profit forecast: The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 1.91 yuan, 2.45 yuan and 3.02 yuan, price-earnings ratios of 24 times, 18 times, 15 times respectively, given a “buy” rating. Risk warning: food safety risks; increased competition in the industry

SAIC Group (600104): Leading market share continues to rise

SAIC Group (600104): Leading market share continues to rise

Event: The company released its 2018 annual report: 2018 realized operating income of 9021.

90,0合肥夜网00 yuan, an increase of 3 in ten years.

6%; net profit attributable to mother is 360.

1 ppm, an increase of 4 in ten years.

7%; realized non-net profit 324.

1 ppm, 10-year average 1.

5%; it is planned to distribute a dividend of 12 per 10 shares.

6 yuan, the dividend rate is 40.

9%, dividend yield 4.


Affected by the accelerated decline of the industry’s prosperity, Q4 dragged down the annual results. In 2018, the prosperity of the domestic auto market continued to decline, and automobile sales continued to rise.

8%, of which passenger vehicle sales increased by 4.


The company’s overall sales in 2018 were 705.

20,000 vehicles, an increase of 1 each year.

8%, significantly profitable industry.

In the context of the downturn of the industry, the leading anti-risk capabilities have been prominent, 武汉夜生活网 and the market share has continued to increase. The company’s domestic market share in 2018 reached 24.

1%, at least 1 increase.

The company’s revenue and net profit in 2018 both achieved positive growth, but non-recurring gains and losses have increased significantly compared to 201721.

100 million to 36.

0 ppm, mainly due to the increase in government subsidies and the one-time premium of the subsidiary Huayu Automobile’s consolidated billing, confirmed as investment income, and the company’s net profit decreased slightly after deduction.

In a single quarter, the company’s 2018Q4 revenue increased by 13.

4%, net profit can be reduced by 14.

5%, to improve the pressure, initially increase the sales volume of the industry in 2018Q413.


It is worth noting that the company Roewe and MG sold 73 in 2018.

0 million vehicles, an increase of 36 in ten years.

5%, industry-leading growth rate.

We believe that the auto market is expected to usher in a revival in 2019. The company’s joint venture has solid profits, strong independent performance, and steady growth in performance.

Benefiting from the strong product cycle, the joint venture’s profit remains stable. In 2018, the company’s joint venture performance was generally stable: SAIC Volkswagen achieved a net profit of 280.

2 ‰, an increase of 4 in ten years.

8%; SAIC-GM’s net profit was 156.

20,000 yuan, an increase of 1 in ten years.

3%; Shangtong Wuling’s net profit was 41.

9 trillion, 21 on New Year’s Eve.


In terms of profitability: SAIC Volkswagen made a profit1.

40,000 yuan, an annual increase of 4.7%; SAIC-GM’s bicycle profit is 0.

80,000 yuan, an annual increase of 2.

8%; Shangtong Wuling Bicycle earns 0.

20,000 yuan, 18 years ago.


In the context of intensifying competition in 2018 and the increase in terminal price reductions of various auto companies, it is not easy for SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC GM to remain strong, fully showing the power of alternative products of joint venture brands.

We believe that for a long period of time, SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM have successively entered a strong product cycle and jointly maintained a stable profitability.

Shanghai Tongwuling’s performance and profitability significantly underwent pressure, which ultimately weakened the consumption capacity of third- and fourth-tier cities, resulting in pressure on sales in the corresponding segment.

Profit forecast and investment advice The company is a leading domestic vehicle with stable performance for many years.

At present, the company’s joint venture is still in a strong product cycle, its profitability is stable, and it is in a strong upward trend.

The EPS is expected to be 3 in 2019-2021.



58 yuan, corresponding PE is 8 respectively.



4 times.

Maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: the industry’s prosperity is below expectations; the company’s product sales are below expectations.

Fuling mustard (002507) in-depth report: the future development of the segment leader can be expected

Fuling mustard (002507) in-depth report: the future development of the segment leader can be expected

Chongqing Fuling Mustard Group Co., Ltd., a leader in the food and appetizer industry, is an agricultural industrialization enterprise group based on the mustard and based on the rapid development of the food and appetizer field.

Relying on the geographical advantages of Fuling mustard, after more than 20 years of rapid development, the company has been producing mustard with an annual capacity of 20 inches, making it one of the top 50 agricultural products in China.

The “Wujiang” brand to which the company belongs is relatively well-known. The mustard product covers the whole country and its market share is more than 20%.

The company is continuously committed to continuously optimizing its products, building channels, shaping its brand image, and continuing effective operations to keep its performance rising.

Since the company was listed, its operating income and net profit have shown a steady growth.

Realized operating income in 201819.

1.4 billion, with a compound growth rate of 17% since listing; net profit after deduction of non-return to motherhood6.

3.8 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 36.


The advantages of origin form the company’s natural barriers. A big advantage of the company comes from its unique natural environment.

The company is located in Fuling District, Chongqing, the largest and most concentrated mustard producing area in the country. The unique natural environment of this area is suitable for large-scale cultivation of cabbage, making it the largest and most concentrated mustard producing area in China.”Township”.

With the continuous development of the mustard industry in Fuling area, the planting area of cabbage head has grown steadily, and the food processing industry and agriculture have formed obvious complementary advantages.

Due to the characteristics of the industry, it is difficult for enterprises outside the area where the mustard is grown to develop.

The company has the advantages of capital and scale, and adopts the “company + order 杭州桑拿网 contract / protected price contract + farmers” procurement model to ensure the supply of raw materials. At the same time, the food processing industry and agriculture in Fuling area have formed obvious complementary advantages and the industry continues to grow.

The market share still needs to be improved. The sinking of the pipeline continues to advance. What is different from the market view is that we don’t think the company has touched the ceiling for the mustard category.

  According to the company’s disclosure, the company’s current market share of small packaging is about 20%.

We think this data is more reasonable and objective than other data.

In order to cope with the recent rapid sales growth, the company has adopted a series of positive measures.

The company’s scale execution channel has been sinking, and county-level and third-level market channels have been vigorously developed. The sales office has been split from 37 to 67 (the sales staff is expected to expand to more than 600 people), and more than 600 new dealers have been developed, laying the foundation for sales transformation.Better foundation; channel innovation is gradually carried out, focusing on breakthroughs in first-tier city e-commerce, catering, aviation catering and takeaway platform channels, and the effects of continuous deep cultivation can only gradually appear.

Cultivate new products and open room for growth In addition to mustard, the company has continued to expand its categories in recent years.

Since the acquisition of Huitong in 2015, it has entered the kimchi market and opened up new growth space for the company.

According to Zhiyan Consulting data, the consumption of the kimchi industry reached 422 in 2015.

7 nominal, market size 466.

US $ 3.6 billion, far more than mustard in terms of scale, but the market competition is still relatively fragmented, and no national brand has yet emerged.

At present, the company has decided to use the Wujiang brand for kimchi products, and has selected six major cities for trial sales. It is currently in the product adjustment stage.

The main project of Liaoning 5’s initial pickled vegetables is nearing completion, and the production equipment is also in negotiation. The capacity of pickled vegetables will be released soon.

We believe that the company will use its strong brand and channel advantages to eventually successfully enter the kimchi market and build a leader in the field of pickles.

Investment suggestion This year, the company does not enter into the period of continuous business adjustment after rising volume and price. However, we firmly believe that the company has built a strong moat from raw materials, products, brands and channels. Through channel adjustment and sinking, new product capacity is gradually released., The company is likely to usher in a turning point in performance.

In summary, we expect the company’s 2019-2021 revenue to be 0.



23 yuan, giving the company a “buy” investment rating.

Risks indicate food safety issues, rising raw material prices, unsatisfactory channel adjustments, and new product launches falling short of expectations.

Yili (600887): Steady growth of main business, differentiated competition, widening moat

Yili (600887): Steady growth of main business, differentiated competition, widening moat

Investment Highlights: Event: On April 25, Yili Co., Ltd. released its first quarterly report.

2019Q1 achieved operating income of 230.

7.7 billion, an annual increase of 17.

89%, net profit attributable to mother 22.

76 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.

36%, growth is basically in line with expectations.

The company’s revenue continued to grow steadily, and the contribution rate of milk powder business increased.

The company achieved operating income of 230 in Q1 2019.

77 ppm, an increase of 17 in ten years.

89%, slightly more than expected, of which liquid milk products, milk powder and dairy products, cold drinks products respectively achieved revenue of 189.

5.9 billion, 25.

5.2 billion, 15.

00 trillion, milk powder continued to maintain a strong growth trend for 18 years, the proportion increased. The company acquired the New Zealand milk powder production and sales company Westland cooperation dairy company in March, the milk powder business is expected to further increase in the future.

At the end of 2018, the company increased its cold drink production reserves. The share of cold drink products in the first quarter increased from the previous quarter.

Regionally, sales in North China continued to expand in South China, with sales in South China declining and sales in North China accounting for the proportion.

3%, up 北京夜网 from 0 before the age of 18.

29pct, South China sales accounted for 23.

62%, a decrease of 3.


The gross profit margin reached a new high, and the product structure was continuously optimized to broaden the product matrix.

The supply of raw milk is tight in Q1 2019, and the price of raw milk has increased slightly. Since August 2018, the price of raw milk has continued to increase with a leap of 7.


Under the background of pressure on raw material costs, the company’s gross profit margin reached 39 in the first quarter.

9%, up 1 every year.


The increase in gross profit margin is mainly due to the optimization and adjustment of the product structure. The gross profit of the milk powder business is relatively high, and the revenue is growing rapidly. The rise in its sales proportion has effectively driven the overall gross profit margin to rise.

At the same time, among the liquid milk product categories, Jindian Organic Room Temperature Milk has expanded as a high-end product market, and high-end products have also driven the growth of overall gross profit margin.

The company’s product matrix has continued to expand and widen. Since the end of 2018, the company has launched a number of new high-margin products, such as high-end products Jindian Juanshan milk, lactic acid bacteria beverage Yiran, Miaozhi cheese, etc., and gradually open the market through new products, which will further consolidate revenue growthAnd drive up gross margins.

Expenditure has been steadily eased, and R & D expansion has significantly improved to help launch new products.

The company’s sales expense ratio for the first quarter of 2019 was 24.

1%, weekly up 1.

1pct, the level of each two quarters in the second half of the early 18th year has been steadily decreasing, and the expenses still mainly come from online advertising marketing, offline sales expenses; administrative expenses rate 4.

1%, 0 in ten years.

2pc, of which R & D costs 9238.

260,000 yuan, an annual increase of 252.

85%, mainly due to the company’s research, testing, and design expenses increased in the first quarter; financial expense ratio -0.

5%, the initial reduction in financial expenses is the decrease in interest income. Yili Finance Co., Ltd. has reduced its interest income from the reduction of its inter-bank budget.
Benefiting from the slight increase in gross profit margin and good cost control, the company’s net profit in the first quarter was 9.
9%, up 2 from the previous month.

2pct, which decreases by 0 every year.

9pct, net margin performance was more in line with expectations.

The company deducts the non-returned net profit of the mother 21.

82 ppm, an increase of 9 per year.


The company’s other payables and other current liabilities increased significantly.

Other payables of the company in the first quarter57.

84 trillion, an increase of 373 over the end of 18.

74%, mainly because the profit distribution plan was approved by the shareholders’ meeting, which should increase the dividends; other flow resistance30.

13 trillion, an increase at the end of the earlier 18 years, mainly because the company issued ultra short-term financing bonds.

The company actively lays out upstream targets and radiates global business through acquisitions.

The company purchased 100% equity of New Zealand’s second largest dairy cooperative Westland Cooperative Dairy Company for over 1.1 billion yuan. Part of the target products are sold to more than 40 countries around the world, helping the company to expand overseas business.

More importantly, the target raw milk supply accounts for 4% of New Zealand’s total raw milk supply, which can effectively help the company to obtain a higher quality and stable New Zealand milk source.

We again predict that two-way oligopoly companies will accelerate the market share of the remaining 10% -15% of room temperature milk in the next two years, which will also open up space and time for the expansion of the same products and the development of low-temperature milk.

Under the trend of low temperature, downstream dairy enterprises will further increase the demand for upstream milk source pastures, and arrange the size of upstream pastures.

Earnings forecast and rating: Regarding the company ‘s stable performance growth and the speed of diversification, we expect the company to achieve 925 revenue in 19/20/21.



5.2 billion, an annual increase of 16% / 16% / 20%, net profit reached 71.



3.4 billion, an increase of 11% / 13% / 15% over the same period.

Taking into account the estimated premium brought by the growth stability of the leader, the estimate was raised to 30X in 19 years, corresponding to a target price of 35.

4 yuan, 15% upside, maintain “highly recommended” level.

Risk reminders: 1. Risk of food safety control; 2. Risk of fluctuation of raw material prices