Guangshen Railway (601333) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Performance Pressure or Release Fully Expect Q4 Cost Speed Down
Due to the cost side dragging down Q3’s 杭州夜生活网 performance more than expected, it is expected that Q4’s cost reduction will push the gradual performance upward.
At present, the market value is more fully responsive to the company’s performance pressure, and the current PB is less than 0.
8 times, it is estimated that the safety margin is high.
The securitization of railway assets has accelerated, and the net interest rate of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen section of the high-speed railway commissioned by the company may rise to about 23% in 2020. The injection of high-quality assets will help improve the profitability of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen railway.
The decline in the third quarter results exceeded expectations and is expected to increase by operating costs13.
4% dragged down, expecting Q4 cost reduction to advance performance.
On January 9, 2019, the company’s operating income increased by 7.
1% to 156.
100 million, attributable to mother / deducted non-net profit 8.
75 billion, 8.
7.7 billion, down 9 every year.
The gross profit margin has decreased by 1 year by year.
1pcs to 9.
4%, the average ROE is expected to drop to 0.
33 points to 3.
The third quarter operating costs increased by 13.
4% excellence surpassed market expectations, an increase of 7% over the first half of the year.
6pcts, which is 6pcts higher than the previous period.
The cost side may drag down Q3 performance significantly.
The scale of 1.3 billion net profit hit a record low in the past (the average net profit in the third quarter of 2008-18 was 4).
100 million), expecting Q4 cost reduction to drive performance growth.
The growth rate of Guangzhou-Shenzhen intercity passenger traffic increased by nearly 4pcts in 1-3Q, and the drop in long-distance buses and through-traffic trains expanded. It is expected that through-train traffic in 2019 may affect performance1.
On January 9, 2019, the overall passenger traffic growth of the company decreased by 2.
4% to 67.49 million, of which long-distance buses, Guangzhou-Shenzhen intercity and through trains increased by -3.
2% and -44.
Affected by the macroeconomic slowdown and the Hong Kong incident, Guangzhou-Shenzhen intercity passenger traffic has narrowed by nearly 4pcts from the first half of the year, and the decline in passenger traffic through Hong Kong has increased by 5%.
Taking into account the 2018 through-port through train to achieve operating income5.
0 ppm, and the Hong Kong section of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong high-speed railway opened to traffic in September 2018. It is expected that the number of passengers passing through Hong Kong through trains in 2019 may decrease by about 33%, which is expected to affect the net profit of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway by about 1.
About 200 million.
The significant increase in cost in Q3 dragged the cumulative growth rate back, and the intercity distribution between Shenzhen and Dongguan is expected to be limited.Operating costs increased by 8 on January 9, 2019.
4% to 141.
400 million, surpassing revenue growth rate1.
Among them, the growth rate of Q3 operating costs increased sharply to 13.
4%, expected wages and benefits and equipment rental costs increased faster than expected due to Q4 cost-side decline.
Guangzhou-Shenzhen Intercity starts from Guangzhou Xintang Station, passes through Zhongtang, Houjie and other towns, and ends at Shenzhen Airport Station, with a total of 15 stations.
Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Shenzhen Intercity mainly attracts passenger traffic from cities and towns along the route and Shenzhen Airport. Considering the stopping areas and destination differences, the impact of diversion is expected to be limited. The improvement of the railway network promotes the promotion of intercity passenger traffic.
In 2020, the net interest rate of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen high-speed railway may reach 23%. It is expected that the injection of asset certificates is expected to land.
Shipai junkyard received land compensation for storage and storage13.
It is expected to contribute about 800 million net profits at the end of 2019 or early 2020.
As China Railway has a total of only three listing platforms, it is beneficial to the pace of state-owned enterprise reform.
Benefiting from the opening of the Hong Kong section of the high-speed railway, the net profit of the high-speed railway commissioned by the Guangzhou-Shenzhen section in the first 3 quarters of 20194.
300 million, expected to achieve 7 in ten years.
The Hong Kong incident affects short-term disruption of some inbound and outbound demand. It is expected that the Guangzhou-Shenzhen high-speed railway will achieve net profit in 2020. 8
200 million (about 23% net interest rate), high-quality asset injection will help improve the profitability of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway.
Risk factors: Railway reforms are less than expected, land development progress is less than expected, and asset securitization is less than expected.
Earnings forecasts, estimates and investment ratings.
Q3 performance gradually exceeded expectations, expected to increase operating costs13.
4% drag, expecting Q4 cost reduction to drive long-term performance 北京桑拿洗浴保健 upward.
The securitization of railway assets has accelerated, and the high-speed railway operated by the Guangzhou-Shenzhen section of trusteeship may rise to about 23% in 2020. The injection of high-quality assets will help improve the profitability of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway.
We maintain the company’s EPS forecast for 2019-2021.
17 and 0.
It is expected that the cost side will reduce speed to improve performance, and the injection of high-quality assets will promote the improvement of road profitability.
The current PB is less than 0.
8 times, it is estimated that the safety margin is high.
Maintain “Buy” rating.